
Hydropower Politics in Central Asia
This study explores the politics of hydropower and transboundary water resource management in Central Asia, with a focus on the impact of competing national interests, institutional limitations, and external influences on regional conflict and cooperation. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union the upstream countries Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have placed high importance on hydropower to achieve energy independence, whereas downstream countries, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, depend greatly on seasonal irrigation runoff, leading to perpetual disagreement on when to let the water flow. Despite a number of regional institutions and agreements, the region remains plagued by nationally driven approaches and lack of enforcement mechanisms. Through geographical analysis, historical context, and case study, particularly the Rogun dam, this study reveals the securitization of water and the limits currently faced. The roles played by China and Russia are also analyzed critically in this paper, with the finding that while both shape the hydropower sector neither is interested in assuming control in regional water diplomacy. The paper proposes a new model of collaboration founded on legalized water-energy exchange, co-investment in decentralized renewables and integration of science and policy. The study emphasizes that solutions to Central Asia’s water problems require not only technical solutions but also political will, regional confidence-building, and international legal harmonization.

